Clear moon frost soon

Well folks, I didn't think we'd get a frost this time around, but as we get closer to Tuesday night I think I have to conclude that we are in for a frost at the Genuine Faux Farm.  And, just as a reminder to all of you - things are typically a couple degrees cooler here than they are in town -  so it looks very much like we could get a killing frost at this point.

At our farm, since we started in 2004, most of our first frosts have come during the week of a full moon.  So, I have taken to looking at when those dates are at the beginning of a growing season.  Now, I fully recognize that the idea of a first frost being determined by a full moon is not fully supported for several reasons.  The first of which, of course, is that we all live in different locations where the first frost will be earlier or later depending on a whole host of factors that have NOTHING to do with the moon.

But, when you live somewhere for a while and you pay attention to the weather like we do on our farm, you tend to notice patterns like....  we have more frosts or near misses during the weeks of the full moon in the fall months.  Or, at least we have since we started growing here.  So, it would be foolish to ignore a pattern once it is observed.

Well, this year, it looks like the "No Moon" phase just might get the frost.  

But, what does the old saying "clear moon frost soon" tell us?  Does it imply that the full moon will indicate a frost is coming for everyone who happens to see it during the Fall?  

Well, let me put it this way.  If we are in the full moon phase but you don't see the moon, it is unlikely that you'll get frost.  Why?  Because it is the clear nights that tend to bring us our early frosts in the Fall and late frosts in the Spring.  If you can see the moon, there aren't clouds providing some insulation and keeping the heat closer the surface of the Earth.

Anyway, I am grateful that we will not need to be doing much preparation this year for the frost because this looks like it will be the sort of frost that is REALLY ANNOYING for a grower of produce.  You see, the forecast is calling for a breezy AND sunny day on Tuesday.  If we were desperate to cover many row feet of sensitive crops, we would find ourselves waiting until the sun goes down and the wind begins to subside.  Then, and only then, could we put our covers on our crops - using headlights and other sources to be able to see what we're doing.

This might sound like a fun or interesting task to some of you.  But, after you've done it enough years, the luster does seem to come off of it.

This time around, we're settling for getting crops harvested and under cover prior to Tuesday night.  The squash are ready and any other sensitive crops we might want to keep going are in the high tunnel.  We just hope we don't go from hard frost to freeze.  It's happened - and could happen this time.

Perhaps a better indicator for a frost than the full moon is the NOAA Weather Service prediction patterns.  This time of year, if you see a forecast low of 40 degrees for a night that is seven to ten days out AND it is forecast to be clear - put it on your watch list.  Once you get to six days out, that forecast low will start to crash.  

First, they'll suggest 38 or 39 for the low.  Then it will go to 36.  Then 34 (which was Sunday night's status).  Often, they'll avoid predicting the "bad news" of a frost until we're 24 to 36 hours away.

Hey, guess what, they just mentioned possible patchy frost!  They're early this time around.