Monday, December 6, 2010


Once again, Winter is a time where I familiarize myself with new weather and climate prediction tools that noaa puts on the web.  I found this one to be instructive.

Tammy and I were discussing how it seemed like the last few Winters (this one included so far) have started with some pretty serious cold weather in December.  And, so, I wondered what the forecast for average temps were for the coming months - and the result is above.

In short, we have equal chances of it being below, above or at averages for Dec-Feb months based on a 40 year average.  In other words - average temps between 16.7 and 20.7 degrees Fahrenheit.  I'll write more on that later.

The interesting part of the chart above shows that each of the last TWO winters (Dec-Feb) were well below this average range (under 15 degrees).  2006-2007 was on the upper edge of average.  Then, the two years prior to that were well ABOVE average.

The table at this web page shows temperature forecasts for the upcoming year.  Including a likelihood for above average temperatures next winter (Dec-Feb).  But, if you look at the percentage chances closely, you'll find there is nothing there above 36% chance (and the categories are split into three).

Then, there is this:

The blue, of course, indicates likelihood for below average temperatures and the orange indicates the likelihood for above average temperatures.

Time for an 'office pool.'  My money is on 19.8 degrees F for the average Dec-Feb temperature. 

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